Here’s What I Can Predict With Absolute Certainty – Stay N Alive

Here’s What I Can Predict With Absolute Certainty

Including this year, I’ve been to 3 Facebook F8 Developer Conferences now (I missed the first year, but followed it remotely). There is a repeat pattern for each, that I want to just get out of the way before this conference starts, and predict, with absolute certainty, will happen. I thought this warranted its own post:

Bloggers will complain. Users will revolt. People will leave the service.

This happens with every single major Facebook update, and it has happened after every F8 conference (maybe not the first one). It is so predictable now that I just smile and laugh.

The fact is, no matter how many people say they are quitting, no matter how many people say they hate the new changes, people still stay. They always come back. They’re always more vocal leaving than they are coming back, too.

The truth is, as long as Facebook continues to innovate, and as long as they continue to adapt and listen to their users, yet innovate as they do so (meaning they are the first to an idea, not necessarily their users), they’ll always lure people back into their service. I guarantee they’ll make mistakes. I guarantee users will hate them for that. However, Facebook always adapts when it’s clear they made a mistake, and the users always come back. They’ll continue to grow, and in more and more areas – I can guarantee that.

You’re already starting to see this – “Facebook’s another Yahoo”. “Facebook is dying”. “The sky is falling”. This happens again and again, year after year. It’s almost predictable, and it will keep happening. You’ll keep coming back though. You’ll keep finding new and better ways to use the service, and you’ll continue to realize this is one of the best services for your closest friends and family to connect.

BTW, you may be asking, “but what about Google+?” I really don’t think they’re direct competitors. Certain people will use Google+ – many people will, in fact (I wouldn’t have written a book on it if that weren’t the case). However, different types of people will use Facebook. The two will compete, and that’s good. I don’t think either service is “dying” though. We’ll all find better ways to use the best tools available.

In fact, for any service, when people are yelling you’re dying, when you’re still growing, that’s a good thing! It shows you’ve touched a few nerves and you’ve got people’s attention.

5 thoughts on “Here’s What I Can Predict With Absolute Certainty

  1. Interesting take.  Personally, I try to stay away from writing about current events, because it seems like it'd be easy to get caught up in the drama…

    I also think the drama spins off of people looking to capture some of
    the limelight.  For example, you see people writing blog post reviews
    titled, “Is so-and-so's product/service a scam?”  It grabs people's attention and helps them generate more eyeballs to their content without really focusing on what's more important — the value of your insights.

  2. Nice article Jesse! I completely agree. The 'thing' is that there are so many users on Facebook, that you need to stay. Where else are so many interesting people and info in 1 website? Not all the changes are improvements, but you don't fool 750M users!

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